458
AXNT20 KNHC 170727 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI JAN 17 2025
CORRECTED ATLANTIC OCEAN SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE COAST
OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N28W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N28W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 06N AND WEST OF
37W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N88W TO
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REST OF THE BASIN IS UNDER A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
FORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OFF VERCRUZ. SEAS
IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF,
WEST OF 90W, WHILE SIMILAR IN STRENGTH BUT EASTERLY WINDS ARE
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT IN
THE AREA DESCRIBED. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRESSURE OF 1015 MB IS NEAR 24N88W, WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER WESTERN GULF S OF ABOUT 27N. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BASIN FRI THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN U.S. AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF LATE ON SAT. FRESH N
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BY EARLY SUN, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
STRONG SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN ON SUN. ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POTENTIALLY NEAR-
GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF BAHAMAS.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING OFF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND OFF NW COLOMBIA. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 5-9 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA,
THROUGH THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES AND DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA,
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS. LONG PERIOD NE TO
E SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES BEGINNING FRI AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WILL IMPACT MUCH
OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CORRECTED
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC,
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF
60W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-10 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR
31N65W. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 29N AND
BETWEEN 33W AND 38W. A DIMINISHING SWELL EVENT IS GENERATING SEAS
OF 9-13 FT, ESPECIALLY FROM A LINE NORTH OF 31N35W TO 23N58W AND
WEST TO 60W. ELSEWHERE, FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 14N
TO 27N AND EAST OF 25W. SEAS IN THE AREA DESCRIBED ARE 5-8 FT. IN
THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N48W
TO 26N60W AND TO 24N70W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA FRI. FRESH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TO EAST
FRI. LONG PERIOD N SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG STORM
SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF
8 FT EXPECTED N OF ABOUT 20N BY FRI MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG W TO
NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT TO THE FAR NORTH- CENTRAL WATERS FRI, AND TO JUST EAST OF
THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA EARLY SAT. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA.
DELGADO
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