689
AXNT20 KNHC 170938
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI JAN 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N28W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N28W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM
02N TO 05N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
LOW PRESSURE OF 1017 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 24N86W, WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST INLAND THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS
SAME PART OF THE BASIN IS HELPING TO ENHANCE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF SOUTH OF 25N
EAST OF 86W. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER ANALYZED
INLAND MEXICO JUST WEST OF TAMPICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE RELATED TO THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST OF VERACRUZ. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 6 TO 9 FT. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALONG WITH 8 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT, ROUGHLY BETWEEN 85W AND 89W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
27N WEST OF 90W, AND NORTHEAST TO EAST FRESH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE
WINDS. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASSES GENERALLY SHOW LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST E OF 93W AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF 93W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN EAST SWELL WITH
THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OF 1017 MB AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR AND
OFFSHORE VERACRUZ TO DIMINISH. AFTERWARDS, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN FRI
THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.S.
AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF LATE ON SAT. FRESH NORTH WINDS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BY EARLY SUN, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
STRONG SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN ON SUN, POSSIBLE REACHING
GALE FORCE IN THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL GULF OFFSHORE TAMPICO SUN AND
IN THE SW GULF OFFSHORE VERACRUZ SUN NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN, WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY AT GALE FORCE SPEEDS ACROSS
SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WATERS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
COLOMBIA FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB
ANALYZED NORTH OF BAHAMAS.
OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OFF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND OFF NW
COLOMBIA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS REMAIN IN PLACE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA,
THROUGH THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES AND DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA,
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS. LONG-PERIOD NE TO
E SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES STARTING TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WILL IMPACT MUCH
OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH IS RESULTING IN
FRESH TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N WEST OF
68W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. TO THE EAST, A COUPLE
OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARE NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG WEST WINDS ARE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT WITH THESE
WINDS. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
30N35W TO 25N46W TO 20N64W. HIGHER SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT IN
NORTHWEST SWELL ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. THESE SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO JUTS BELOW 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO EXIST IN THE TROPICAL REGION
SOUTH OF ABOUT 20N AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEAS WITH
THESE TRADES ARE 5 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT IN NORTH SWELL SOUTH OF 16N AND EAST OF 48W. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NEAR 31N44W TO NEAR 26N52W WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA TODAY. FRESH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TO EAST
TODAY. LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXPECTED NORTH OF ABOUT 20N
BEGINNING TODAY. THE FRESH TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST NORTH OF
28N WEST OF 71W WINDS WILL MERGE WITH SIMILAR WINDS THAT ARE NORTH
OF 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO JUST EAST OF THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
EARLY SAT. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA.
AGUIRRE
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