234
AXNT20 KNHC 181738
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT JAN 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1720 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST OF
SE TEXAS LATER TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUN AND SUN
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ.
AS THIS FRONT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO, GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GALES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN, INCLUDING
OUTSIDE OF THE GALE CONDITION AFFECTED OFFSHORE ZONES, DUE TO THE
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CONSECUTIVE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS GALE WARNING, PLEASE SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N26W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 00N26W TO NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EMERGING INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
FROM THE TX/LA COASTAL BORDER TO THE TX/MEXICO COASTAL BORDER.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH SEAS TO 6
FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS ARE NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF
THE FRONT, COVERING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. SEAS IN THIS AREA
RANGE FROM 3-6 FT, WITH LOWEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF NW FLORIDA.
SOUTH OF 25N, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL WITH 3-6 FT
SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
GRADUALLY INCREASING NW TO N WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO STRONG SPEEDS BY EARLY SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BUILDING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUN AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. LOOKING
AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NW GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE N TO
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN,
INCLUDING OUTSIDE OF THE GALE CONDITION AFFECTED ZONES, DUE TO THE
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CONSECUTIVE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, AS DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. TRADES MAY PULE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT
IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH LOCALLY 8 FT SEAS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN,
WITH 3-5 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND
DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT AND
THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA MON THROUGH
TUE. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF BERMUDA AND NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS ARE DIVIDED BY TWO COLD FRONTS IN THE CENTRAL
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. ONE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO 24N47W, AND
THE OTHER EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 27N63W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE NEAR THESE FRONTS WITHIN THE TAFB FORECAST WATERS. 8-12 FT
SEAS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WATERS WEST OF 74W, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO ANALYZED ON ATLANTIC APPROACHES
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, INCLUDING WITHIN THE PASSAGES. SEAS ARE
TO 8 FT. SOUTH OF 22N, ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, TRADES ARE
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH 8-10 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER WITH 4-7 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NE
ZONES WILL SHIFT E OF 55W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS
PRODUCED BY THESE WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE ALSO
SHIFTING E OF 55W TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE S OF 23N THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS PULSING TO
STRONG SPEEDS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT TIMES. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST N
OF 24N IN ADVANCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL TRACK NE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE WELL N OF THE
FORECAST WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
WATERS ON SUN INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT N OF 27N. LOOKING AHEAD, A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NORTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF CUBA AND WEST OF 70W.
MAHONEY
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