415
AXNT20 KNHC 190435
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN JAN 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. A REINFORCING FRONT HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT, BECOMING STRONG BY EARLY SUN AS
THE FRONT REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR VERACRUZ,
MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE PROGRESSING FRONT ON SUN TO PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS SUN AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE NW GULF ON MON NIGHT, THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH WED, DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
STORM FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN, DUE TO THE
EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND LARGE AREA OF VERY ROUGH TO
HIGH SEAS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE COAST
OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N22W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N22W TO 02N35W AND TO 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 41W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE, SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO,
MEXICO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF WATERS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF 90W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
5-8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT
AND EAST OF 90W, WHILE SIMILAR STRENGTH BUT S-SW WINDS ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF 90W. SEAS IN THE AREA DESCRIBED ARE
3-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR A DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THE FORECAST. MARINERS ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN, INCLUDING OUTSIDE OF THE
GALE CONDITION AFFECTED ZONES, DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO CONSECUTIVE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE
LIKELY PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. HOWEVER,
NEAR GALE-FORCE NE-E WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OFF NW COLOMBIA.
SEAS ARE 7-11 FT IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OFF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, ALONG WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND
DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT AND
THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
WESTERN CUBA MON THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE
NW BAHAMAS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND NORTH OF 30N. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
CAPTURED FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO 60W AND NORTH OF 24N. SEAS OF 6-10 FT ARE NOTED IN
THESE WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
OF 5-8 FT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC, FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND
SEAS OF 6-9 FT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF 60W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES TO
22N52W, FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH
TO STRONG SW-NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 29N AND BETWEEN 25W
AND 45W. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT SOUTH OF 22N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N75W TO JUST N OF
THE NW BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S
OF 23N THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS ON SUN PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS N OF 28N. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
WESTERN CUBA BY MON EVENING THEN STALL ON TUE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUE NIGHT,
AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY WED MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NORTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF CUBA AND W OF ABOUT 70W THROUGH
WED. WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE MAY OCCUR N OF 29N
TUE NIGHT AND WED.
DELGADO
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