342
AXNT20 KNHC 192319
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON JAN 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA DEPICTED
STRONG TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS AND ROUGH OFF NE FLORIDA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING, AND
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE. THEN, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL N OF
27N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, FORECAST TO
REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA BY MON EVENING THEN STALL
AND WEAKEN ON TUE.
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
TAMPA BAY, FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA AROUND 15Z ON SUN SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL GULF, INCLUDING THE TAMPICO AREA.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL N OF THE
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SE AND GRADUALLY STALLS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON AND MON NIGHT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ
IS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE
NW GULF ON MON NIGHT, THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED,
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS EARLY TUE BECOMING STRONG GALES AND EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST AND CENTRAL GULF. MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME
CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN, DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE
FORCE WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
04N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 38W
AND 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOME SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA
BAY, FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BAND
OF SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, IS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NOW IS AFFECTING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA,
THE SE GULF AND NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTS STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF REGION. ROUGH SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 13 FT OVER THE SW
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR A DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THE FORECAST. MARINERS ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN, INCLUDING OUTSIDE OF THE
GALE CONDITION AFFECTED ZONES DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO CONSECUTIVE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS, ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30 KT
ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BUOY
42058 LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS REPORTING 9 FT. SEAS
OF 5 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS EXIST OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND
DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT, THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
WESTERN CUBA MON THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN MON NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED
AFTERNOON, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA. PLEASE, SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N26W TO 22N50W. A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THIS POINT
TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS, WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS, IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS TOWARD THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING AND COMPARATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS
ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT
S OF ABOUT 22N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND
80W IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS N FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS THIS EVENING, REACH FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA BY MON EVENING THEN STALL AND WEAKEN
ON TUE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
STRONG, ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 23N
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT TIMES. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUE EVENING, AND
REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY WED MORNING, THEN
BECOME ALIGNED E TO W ALONG 27N AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY
THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
NORTH WINDS AND HIGH SEAS NORTH OF 24N AND W OF ABOUT 70W THROUGH
MIDDAY WED.
GR
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