420
AXNT20 KNHC 200418
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JAN 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT OFF VERACRUZ
IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED, ALTHOUGH ROUGH
SEAS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL FOLLOW A SECOND FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF LATE MON NIGHT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH FROM
TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS, MEXICO BY
LATE TUE, FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS, WITH POSSIBLE STRONG GALES
OFF VERACRUZ, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
START TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE SOUTHEAST GULF
THROUGH EARLY WED.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN
DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF
VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS THAT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
03N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO NEAR 02S35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 15W
AND 30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOME SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHOKOLOSKEE, FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE MERIDA, MEXICO. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 14 FT SEAS
FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
GULF NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SE AND
GRADUALLY STALLS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NW GULF ON
MON NIGHT, THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED, DRAGGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
EARLY TUE BECOMING STRONG GALES AND EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST
AND CENTRAL GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL, AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE NOTED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. NO OTHER SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AT THIS
TIME. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND 7 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE
EVIDENT BETWEEN NORTHEAST COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE BREEZES AND 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND
DOWNWIND OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT, THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN
CUBA MON THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AFTERNOON,
THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA FROM 30N77W TO NEAR JUPITER INLET, FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE GALE-
FORCE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDE, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO
10 FT SEAS ARE NOTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 65W. FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES
REACHES FROM 31N25W TO 26N35W TO 22N50W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT SEAS FOLLOW THIS FRONT EAST OF 55W. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE FRONTS, REACHING FROM
THE NORTH- CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ALONG THE RIDGE
AXIS. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND 8 TO
10 FT SEAS PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA BY MON EVENING THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ON
TUE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG,
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 23N THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AT TIMES. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUE EVENING, AND REACH
FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY WED MORNING, THEN BECOME
ALIGNED E TO W ALONG 27N AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY THU.
THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTH
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS NORTH OF 24N AND W OF ABOUT 70W THROUGH MIDDAY
WED.
CHRISTENSEN
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