071
AXNT20 KNHC 201143
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON JAN 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL INDUCE NEAR GALE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTH OF ABOUT 28N BETWEEN 74W AND THE
FLORIDA COAST, FROM TUE INTO EARLY ON WED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO THE RANGE OF ABOUT 9 TO 14 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE DURING WED AS THE LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TO ALONG
A LINE FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA BY WED AFTERNOON.
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NW
GULF TONIGHT, THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR FROM
TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS, MEXICO BY
EARLY TUE EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
INDUCE GALE FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUE BECOMING
STRONG GALES AND EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL GULF.
HIGH SEAS UP TO AROUND 24 FT ARE FORECAST IN THE SW GULF ON WED,
WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY THE BASIN.
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE LATER ON WED AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN
DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF
VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS THAT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N10W AND CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO 06N18W, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N30W AND TO NEAR 02S445W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 22W AND 25W, AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W AND
30W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W AND 24W,
AND FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOME SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A COLD FRONT IS ALONG A POSITION FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
NEAR THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE BASIN AS NOTED BY
OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASSES AND IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS
THROUGHOUT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ.
SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF
10 TO 12 FT IN NORTH SWELL FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF MOSTLY LIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, REACHING TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS IN THE EASTERN AND FAR SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE
NW GULF TONIGHT, THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED DRAGGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
EARLY TUE BECOMING STRONG GALES AND EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WEST AND CENTRAL GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL AS WELL AS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW ARE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE SEA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
75W AND TO NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA, AND ALSO OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 18N. OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE
DATA PASSES DEPICTED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA, AND OVER SOME SECTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 80W, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT OFFSHORE
OF COLOMBIA NORTH TO NEAR 13N. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ALONG WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FOR GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT SEAS NORTH
17N AND WEST OF 83W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS
DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING, THEN STALL AFTERWARDS AND WEAKEN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH
TUE. FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL DOMINATE
MOST OF THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE NEXT STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AFTERNOON, THEN STALL AND
DISSIPATE WED NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NEW GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS OFFSHORE NORTHEAST
NORTH OF NORTH OF ABOUT 28N BETWEEN 74W AND THE FLORIDA COAST
FROM TUE INTO EARLY ON WED.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N WHILE
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EAST OF THE FRONT TO NEAR
65W AND NORTH OF 29N. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT
BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE THAT IS WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
31N20W, CONTINUING TO 25N30W AND TO NEAR 21N49W. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT SEAS
FOLLOW THIS FRONT EAST OF 55W. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE EXTREME
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE HIGHER SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT IN
NORTHWEST ARE NORTH OF 30N AND EAST OF 40W.
OTHERWISE, A RIDE STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 31N50W, AND CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
TO EXIST NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS PERSIST OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THESE SEAS WHERE GENERATED BY EAST
SWELL RESULTING FROM THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
IN EXISTENCE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA BY MON EVENING THEN STALL
AND WEAKEN ON TUE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME STRONG, ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF
23N THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT TIMES. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUE EVENING, AND
REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY WED MORNING, THEN
BECOME ALIGNED E TO W ALONG 27N AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY
THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
NORTH WINDS AND HIGH SEAS NORTH OF 24N AND W OF ABOUT 70W THROUGH
MIDDAY WED. IN THE LONG TERM, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THU INTO THU NIGHT, WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRI, WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING
FROM NEAR 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA BY FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THO FRONT.
AGUIRRE
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