638
AXNT20 KNHC 202311
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE JAN 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A SECONDARY-SURGE OF VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE, LEADING TO AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE FORCE NE WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BASIN
BASIN TUE AND TUE NIGHT, BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD
AND CONTINUES IMPROVE INTO WED. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE GALES, WITH SEAS EXCEEDING 20 FT IN PARTS OF THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO TUE NIGHT.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: THE COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FLORIDA
LATER ON TUE, WITH NORTHERLY GALES IN ITS WAKE N OF THE BAHAMAS
TUE NIGHT. THESE GALES AND ASSOCIATED VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
INTO WED BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR LATE WEEK.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST, THAT IS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITE:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W TO 06N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 04N23W TO 03N30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 25W
AND 30W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON WIDESPREAD GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUE.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS LEFT THE BASIN UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATE
TO FRESH MAINLY NE WINDS. LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, AND STRONG EASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHWEST GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FORMING OVER
TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE
TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 7 FT, ALTHOUGH ROUGH SEAS ARE
OBSERVED WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ARE ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NW GULF
TONIGHT, THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED, DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL INDUCE GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE, LIKELY BECOMING STRONG GALES AND EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST
AND CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN BY WED
MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO THE
EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF VERY ROUGH
TO HIGH SEAS THAT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. LOOKING AHEAD, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE E MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY THU EVENING WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE-FORCE BY FRI MORNING. GALES OFF
VERACRUZ WILL DIMINISH BY FRI EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAVANA, CUBA, TO NEAR CANCUN,
MEXICO. STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE N OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, A TRADEWIND REGIME DOMINATES, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. A BROAD AREA OF STRONG E WINDS
ENCOMPASSES THE CENTRAL BASIN, WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OF THE DEEP TROPICS IS
TIGHTEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THE BASIN THIS
EVENING.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH
TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN,
REACHING NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TAIL OF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL STALL LATER TODAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA THROUGH TUE. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED MORNING, STALL FROM W CUBA TO
BELIZE WED AFTERNOON, BEFORE DISSIPATING WED NIGHT INTO THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A GALE WARNING FOR ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS TUE AND
WED.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR HAVANA, CUBA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THIS
BOUNDARY N OF 25N. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. FARTHER E, ANOTHER WEAKEN COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AROUND 22N48W.
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH A BROAD AREA
OF 8 TO 14 FT SEAS. TO THE S OF 20N, NE TO E TRADES DOMINATE, AT
FRESH MAGNITUDE TO THE W OF 30W, AND MODERATE SPEEDS TO THE E.
SEAS IN THE TRADEWIND BELT ARE 6 TO 9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DIMINISH ON WED AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST TUE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS BY WED MORNING, FROM 31N61W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH THU
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE NORTH WINDS AND HIGH SEAS NORTH OF 24N AND W OF ABOUT 70W
THROUGH MIDDAY WED. IN THE LONG TERM, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. THU INTO THU EVENING, WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT REACHING TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRI, WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR
31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA BY FRI EVENING, AND FROM BERMUDA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THO FRONT.
KONARIK
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