139
AXNT20 KNHC 171929
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON MAR 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N55W
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS EAST OF 55W THROUGH
TONIGHT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW FROM 25.5N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W
AND 57W. THESE WINDS ARE WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS THAT COVERS ROUGHLY THE WATERS FROM 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 34W AND 62W. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
N OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE WEAKENING. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EAST OF 70W
THROUGH MID WEEK.
W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N77W
INTO WESTERN CUBA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO NEAR-GALE FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N68W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND EASTERN CUBA TUE MORNING,
AND FROM BERMUDA TO PUERTO RICO WED MORNING. BY MID WEEK, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SUPPORTING NEAR-GALE
TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ON TUE NIGHT NEAR 29N71W,
THEN DRIFT E THROUGH WED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LIBERIA/SIERRA
LEONE BORDER NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N14W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N14W TO 01S29W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL
NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THESE FEATURES.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THIS DISCUSSION HAS EXITED
THE BASIN TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB HAS SETTLED IN
OVER THE NW GULF. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
E OF A LINE RUNNING FROM NEW ORLEANS, LA TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO. TO
THE WEST OF THIS LINE, WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE SPEEDS IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. SEAS ARE 5-10
FT TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE, AND 2-5 FT TO THE
WEST.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SETTLE OVER THE BASIN
THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD N FLORIDA,
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP OVER THE NW GULF
TONIGHT INTO TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE GULF REGION BY MID WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE ISLE OF YOUTH
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR THE MEXICO-
BELIZE BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG THE FRONT, WITH FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH 5-8 FT SEAS. OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN, LEADING TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY
2-5 FT ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH AREAS OF 5-8 FT SEAS OCCURRING
OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT, AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR
CABO GRACIAS A DIOS, NICARAGUA ON TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. IN ADDITION, NE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS SOUTHERN CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND
SOUTH OF HAITI THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO
8 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS AT NIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE. ANOTHER GALE WARNING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE W ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK IN THE VICINITY OF AN
OCCLUDED LOW. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE AREAS, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVED
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS THIS MORNING, WITH A SMALL PORTION OF
THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N15W TO 23N21W, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL N OF 27N
AND EAST OF 25W. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 15N, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 15N.
SEAS OF 6-10 FT ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N55W WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS EAST OF 55W THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH TUE
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
EAST OF 70W THROUGH MID WEEK. FARTHER WEST, A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG THE SE FLORIDA SEABOARD INTO WESTERN CUBA WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N68W TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AND EASTERN CUBA TUE MORNING, AND FROM BERMUDA TO PUERTO
RICO WED MORNING. BY MID WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT SUPPORTING NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.
ADAMS
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