387
AXNT20 KNHC 180519
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE MAR 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS 31N73W TO CAMAGUEY,
CUBA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT TUE NIGHT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. AFTERWARD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS ON
BOTH GALE AREAS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LIBERIA/SIERRA
LEONE BORDER NEAR 07N11 AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N16W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N16W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL
NEAR 02.5S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN BETWEEN 22N AND 34W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
28N90W DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MAINLY E OF 87W, INCLUDING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE SEAS ARE IN
THE 7 TO 10 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS GENERALLY OF 4 TO 7
FT SEAS, EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE E GULF THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. FRESH TO STRONG SE WIND
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO COME OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WED MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO VERACRUZ WED NIGHT,
FROM CAPE CORAL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU AFTERNOON, AND EXIT
THE BASIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS MAY REACH GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT OFF VERACRUZ. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE BASIN ON FRI MORNING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CAMAGUEY, CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND 7 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT SPILLING IN
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH THE OF MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE 4
TO 6 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CAMAGUEY,
CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM EASTERN
CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA THIS MORNING BEFORE ITS TAIL DISSIPATES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT N
OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PULSING FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE THROUGH
WED EVENING. IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN,
FRESH TO STRONG NW TO E WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NEAR THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, AND STRONG WINDS
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N57W. THE
CENTER IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NE OF THE LOW CENTER NEAR 34NW44W
SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS
THAT COVERS THE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 65W. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WIND SPEEDS. THIS LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO
THE E OF THE LOW CENTER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA CONFIRM THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, COLD FRONT EXTENDS 31N73W TO CAMAGUEY,
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BUT MAINLY N OF 24N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS. A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 24N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 35W, INCLUDING THROUGH THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. SEAS OF 12 TO 20 FT IN
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE AFFECTING THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTH AND EXITS THE FORECAST WATERS BY WED MORNING. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PRECEDE AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM 31N68W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS AND EASTERN CUBA TUE MORNING, AND FROM 31N60W TO
PUERTO RICO WED MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TUE NIGHT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. AFTERWARD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A THIRD
STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST THU.
GR
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