616
AXNT20 KNHC 181802
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE MAR 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1004 MB LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS 31N68W TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND UP TO
80 NM EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 33N63W WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE, STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NW TO N WINDS ALONG WITH 12 TO 20
FT SEAS IN LARGE MIXED SWELLS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT WATERS
NORTH OF 22N AND BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. AFTERWARD, THE LOW WILL
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND STEADILY WEAKEN, ALLOWING BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BORDER OF GAMBIA AND SENEGAL, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
03N22W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 03N22W ACROSS
00N35W TO NORTH OF SAO LUIS, BRAZIL AT 00N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR BOTH FEATURES
FROM 02S TO 03N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1025 MB HIGH OVER
NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG S
WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT EXIST AT THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN
CHANNEL. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG S
WINDS THROUGH WED MORNING, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL COME OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WED MORNING, REACH FROM SOUTHERN
ALABAMA TO VERACRUZ WED NIGHT, FROM CAPE CORAL TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THU AFTERNOON, AND EXIT THE GULF THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF GALES OFF VERACRUZ THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF ON FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE BASIN AFTERWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE WEAKENING PORTION OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA TO EAST OF THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.
PATCHY SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 60 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT. FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND ALSO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED. HOWEVER, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING. IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
FRI. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NEAR THE BAHAMAS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION,REACHING
NEAR GALE-FORCE OFFSHORE COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE TAIL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN EARLY FRI AND DISSIPATE FRI EVENING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT AN UPCOMING GALE
EVENT.
A BROAD BUT WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 26N58W.
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS FARTHER EAST OF THIS LOW ARE COUPLING
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY TO CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 40W AND
52W. BESIDES THE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 11 FT IN LARGE
MIXED SWELLS EXIST NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE FLORIDA COAST.
FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN
LARGE MIXED SWELLS DOMINATE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. AT
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED. FOR THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 03N TO 20N AND WEST OF 35W, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS ARE EVIDENT. GENTLE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 1008 MB LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 21N AND EAST OF
62W THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PRECEDE
AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NORTH
HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON, AND FROM 31N60W TO PUERTO RICO WED
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS ON THU AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE
GEORGIA/NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THU INTO
THU EVENING. NEAR GALE-FORCE NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SAT.
CHAN
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