710
AXNT20 KNHC 190419
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED MAR 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
33.5N 69.2W IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE N TO
NW WINDS CURRENTLY ARE ANALYZED IN WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
69W AND 74W, ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW'S CIRCULATION.
BUILDING SEAS OF 18-21 FT ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS ARE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
62W AND 78W, WHERE SEAS EXCEED 12 FT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY, SUPPORTING GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 23 FT
LATER THIS MORNING, WITH THE AREA OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS
EXPANDING TO COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE ZONES
NORTH OF 20N. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING THU NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
STEADILY WEAKENS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 11N15W, CURVING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 02N30W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 02N30W TO NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR NORTH TO 05N WEST OF 22W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE BIG BEND OF
FLORIDA IN THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS WEST OF 90W, WITH SOME BUOYS REPORTING WINDS TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT, PEAKING TO 8 FT OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. IN THE EASTERN GULF, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT
SEAS PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH WED MORNING, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL COME OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WED MORNING, REACH FROM
SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO VERACRUZ WED NIGHT, FROM CAPE CORAL TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THU AFTERNOON, AND EXIT THE BASIN THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF GALES OFF VERACRUZ THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN ON FRI
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE BASIN
AFTERWARD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF NW YUCATAN AND
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE LEE OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING WITHIN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, WITH SEAS OF
4-6 FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE ANALYZED IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH 4-6 FT
SEAS. ELSEWHERE, RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. HIGHER SEAS IN
NORTHERLY SWELL ARE ALSO SPREADING NEAR AND THROUGH ATLANTIC
PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINDS FRI THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GALE-
FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AT NIGHT ON SAT AND SUN,
ALONG WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO E NICARAGUA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI AND DISSIPATE FRI EVENING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT A
WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.
OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING AREA, SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED IN PART WITH
THE GALE FORCE LOW, EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 25N63W TO 20N71W ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS FOLLOW
THE FRONT, INCREASING TO STRONG AND NEAR-GALE FORCE SPEEDS NORTH
OF 24N AND WEST OF 64W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH SW
TO S WINDS PREVAIL TO 45W. WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED
NEAR 29N57W SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE THIS
MORNING. EARLIER SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 10N TO 20N, AND MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN OPEN WATERS, EXCEPT
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 16W AND 36W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8-11 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT DAY, SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AFTERWARD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE FLORIDA
OFFSHORE WATERS ON THU AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THU INTO THU EVENING. NEAR GALE-
FORCE NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH
FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
E OF THE AREA ON SAT, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD THE
REMAINING WEEKEND.
MAHONEY
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