568
AXNT20 KNHC 191039
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED MAR 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1025 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 69W AND
74W, ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW'S CIRCULATION. BUILDING
SEAS OF 18-22 FT ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE CYCLONIC WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY, SUPPORTING
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEAK SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 23 FT
LATER THIS MORNING, WITH THE AREA OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS
EXPANDING TO COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE ZONES
NORTH OF 20N. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING THU NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
STEADILY WEAKENS.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY PROCEED EASTWARD.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, EXCEPT
FOR GALE-FORCE NW-N WINDS OFF VERACRUZ THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 9 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W, CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N30W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 02N30W TO NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED SOUTH OF 05N.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING OFF VERACRUZ.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND
LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 6-10 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS
DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING AND TRAVEL QUICKLY EASTWARD. THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO VERACRUZ TONIGHT, FROM
CAPE CORAL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU AFTERNOON, AND EXIT THE
BASIN THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT FOR MINIMAL GALES
OFF VERACRUZ THU AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE BASIN ON FRI MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ACROSS
THE BASIN AFTERWARD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF NW
YUCATAN AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF THE TIBURON
PENINSULA OF HAITI. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-6 FT. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OFF NW COLOMBIA IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BUILDING
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE WINDS FRI THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GALE-FORCE
WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AT NIGHT ON SAT AND SUN, ALONG
WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WILL ALSO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE TAIL OF A
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI AND DISSIPATE
FRI EVENING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC.
OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING AREA, SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED IN PART WITH
THE GALE FORCE LOW, EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO 25N61W TO 19N19W ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG SW TO S WINDS
PREVAIL TO 43W AND NORTH OF 22N. WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
ANALYZED NEAR 30N57W SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE GALE FORCE LOW
PRESSURE THIS MORNING.
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURES NORTH OF THE AREA RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG
CYCLONIC WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 35W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
NEAR BERMUDA SUPPORTS STRONG TO GALE-FORCE W-NW WINDS AND ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 27N AND
BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. THE BROAD NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAKE A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP AND TURN NORTH ON THU, MOVING AWAY
FROM OUR AREA. THE STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH FRI AS THE WINDS AND SEAS SLIDE EASTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD,
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE FLORIDA
OFFSHORE WATERS ON THU AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THU. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE W-NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW
THIS FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON SAT,
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH.
DELGADO
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