465
AXNT20 KNHC 191743
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED MAR 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BRING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
TO THE W ATLANTIC WATERS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
GALE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W, WITH
SEAS OF 12-18 FT OCCURRING N OF 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. NEAR-GALE
TO GALE-FORCE WNW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS NE AND E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, SEAS OF 12-18 FT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 74W. AFTERWARD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL START
TO DIMINISH AS THE BROAD NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES E AND THEN
LIFT N OF THE AREA THU EVENING.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND QUICKLY PROCEED EASTWARD. FRESH
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO REACH FROM PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO
THU MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES E OF THE BASIN EARLY ON FRI. BRIEF
MINIMAL GALES ARE EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN FRI
MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
GULF.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W, CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N19W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM OF THESE FEATURES AND SOUTH OF 07N.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING OFF VERACRUZ.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND
LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
S TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
2-5 FT SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY
THIS EVENING. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ, MEXICO THU MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES E OF THE BASIN EARLY
ON FRI. BRIEF MINIMAL GALES ARE EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
BASIN FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT FRI THROUGH SUN, ENHANCING
WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF THE TIBURON
PENINSULA OF HAITI. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OFF NW COLOMBIA IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 2-5
FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IN THE EASTERN,
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL REACH FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS FRI EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEAR THE BAHAMAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
WATERS LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PULSING GALES AT
NIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE SAT THROUGH MON. FRESH NE WINDS IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF CUBA WILL DIMINISH THU
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI AND DISSIPATE FRI EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
RESUMING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF CUBA FRI EVENING
THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AND EAST WINDS OF THE SAME SPEED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS SUN EVENING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC.
OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING AREA, SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 78W. A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED IN PART WITH
THE GALE FORCE LOW, EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 27N58W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL
N OF 22N BETWEEN 46W AND 77W. A WEAK 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE
ANALYZED NEAR 29N67W SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE GALE FORCE LOW
PRESSURE LATER TODAY.
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURES NORTH OF THE AREA RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG
CYCLONIC WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 33W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, NEAR TO GALE-FORCE WNW WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE
WATERS NE AND E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AFTERWARD,
WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS THE BROAD NON-TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES E AND THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA THU EVENING. FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE FLORIDA OFFSHORE
WATERS ON THU AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N71W TO ANDROS ISLAND AND
W CUBA FRI MORNING, AND FROM 31N57W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SAT
MORNING WHERE IT STALL BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NE TO E OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THE
REMAINDER WEEKEND.
ADAMS
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