412
AXNT20 KNHC 200525
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU MAR 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BRING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
TO THE W ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND N OF 25N, ALONG WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING. BY
THIS TIME, SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 74W. AFTERWARD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
START TO DIMINISH AS THE BROAD NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND
THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THU EVENING.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
BASIN TONIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA
TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO THU MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES E OF THE BASIN
EARLY ON FRI. BRIEF GALES ARE EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
BASIN FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE GULF.
SW CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE W
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL TIGHTEN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PULSING GALES AT NIGHT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA FROM FRI THROUGH SUN. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 08N14W TO 03N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO 03S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARIES.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ.
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 29N93W TO 23N98W. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT. ROUGH SEAS ARE BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL SE OF THE FRONT. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN AT TIME.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL FROM TAMPA, FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ,
MEXICO THU AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES E OF THE BASIN EARLY ON FRI.
BRIEF MINIMAL GALES ARE EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 FT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN FRI
MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT FRI THROUGH SUN, ENHANCING WINDS TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL COME OFF TEXAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE WARNING
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA ON FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS
ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. TO THE
E, THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 17N63W TO 14N66W.
SEAS ARE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT WEST OF 74W, LOCALLY 6 FT NEAR THE
STRONGEST WIND AREAS, AND 2 TO 4 FT EAST OF 74W, EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FT
NEAR AND THROUGH ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUSTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL
WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT, WITH PULSING GALES AT NIGHT
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA FRI THROUGH SUN. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF CUBA WILL DIMINISH THU MORNING. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY
FRI AND DISSIPATE FRI EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS RESUMING IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF CUBA FRI EVENING THROUGH SUN
NIGHT, AND EAST WINDS OF THE SAME SPEED AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS SUN AND MON.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING IN THE W ATLANTIC.
OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING AREA, SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 79W. A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED TO THE GALE
LOW, IS ANALYZED FROM 31N55W TO 17N62W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL N OF 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 77W, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA,
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N40W. MODERATE TO FRESH
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN 30W-43W. FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED
S OF 22N AND E OF 60W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL WITH THE
TRADES. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N14W TO
29N26W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N AND E OF 26W, WITH ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
BROAD NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES E AND THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA THU
EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE
FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS ON THU AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU EVENING. STRONG
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N71W TO
ANDROS ISLAND AND W CUBA FRI MORNING, AND FROM 31N57W TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SAT MORNING WHERE IT STALL BEFORE DISSIPATING
LATE SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NE TO E OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THE REMAINDER WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS MON NIGHT.
ERA
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