972
AXNT20 KNHC 201029
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU MAR 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1025 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A WEAKENING, BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG TO GALE-FORCE
CYCLONIC WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. THESE WINDS RESULT IN ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS, PEAKING NEAR 17 FT. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N54W TO
17N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NORTH OF 20N AND
BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN, MEXICO. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE
FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM
TAMPA, FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MINIMAL
GALES ARE EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED THE STRONGEST
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE SW GULF TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.
SW CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURES IN N COLOMBIA WILL
TIGHTEN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PULSING GALES AT NIGHT OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA FROM FRI THROUGH SUN. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W, CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N23W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N23W TO 02S43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN, MEXICO. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RECENT MARINE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE NW-N WINDS
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NW GULF WATERS.
GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. SEAS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE 7-10 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFF VERACRUZ. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM TAMPA,
FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO THU AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES E OF THE
BASIN EARLY ON FRI. BRIEF MINIMAL GALES ARE EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE BASIN FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT FRI THROUGH SUN, ENHANCING
WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL COME OFF TEXAS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE WARNING
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS OFF NW COLOMBIA.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JUST NORTH
OF THE ABC ISLANDS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
THE REST OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN,
WINDWARD PASSAGE, LEE OF CUBA AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUSTAIN FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER N COLOMBIA WILL RESULT IN NEAR
GALE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT, WITH PULSING GALES AT NIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA FRI
THROUGH SUN. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY
FRI AND DISSIPATE FRI EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS RESUMING IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF CUBA FRI EVENING THROUGH SUN
NIGHT, AND EAST WINDS OF THE SAME SPEED AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS SUN AND MON.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING IN THE W ATLANTIC.
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES, ESPECIALLY EAST OF 75W.
WEST OF 75W, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW
RIDGE CENTERED WELL WEST OF THE AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF PORTUGAL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG W-NW WINDS NORTH OF 26N AND
EAST OF 30W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 10-14 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 21N AND
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAKENING, BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG TO
GALE-FORCE CYCLONIC WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. THESE WINDS RESULT IN ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG FRONT WILL ENTER THE BASIN THIS EVENING AND
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW. THE FRONT IS WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N71W
TO ANDROS ISLAND AND W CUBA FRI MORNING, AND FROM 31N57W TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SAT MORNING WHERE IT STALL BEFORE DISSIPATING
LATE SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NE TO E OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THE REMAINDER WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS MON NIGHT.
DELGADO
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