733
AXNT20 KNHC 201804
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU MAR 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING:
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AREA TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING UP
TO 90 NM ALONE EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS AT THE NORTHWESTERN GULF RANGE
FROM 7 TO 12 FT. AS THIS FRONT PASSES NEAR VERACRUZ, MEXICO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS OFF VERACRUZ WILL REACH NEAR- GALE TO GALE-
FORCE, AND SEAS PEAKING AT 10 TO 12 FT. ONCE THE FRONT HAS
PROGRESSED FARTHER EASTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULAR EARLY THIS
EVENING, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING:
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1019 HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CAUSE
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, THESE WINDS OFFSHORE FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
WILL REACH NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE FROM FRI THROUGH SUN. SEAS OF 8
TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT NW SWELLS:
LARGE NW SWELL IS SUSTAINING SEAS AT 12 TO 16 FT NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 54W AND 65W. AS THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY, THIS AREA
OF VERY ROUGH SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WHILE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 12 FT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER
OF GUINEA-BISSAU AND GAMBIA, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
04N23W. THEN AN ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM 04N23W THROUGH
01N35W TO 00N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 01S TO 01N BETWEEN 33W AND 51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING.
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 7 FT
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF, AND WATERS NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE BASIN LATE TONIGHT, AND
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF FRI, SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SUN,
ENHANCING WINDS TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG IN THE PENINSULA
ADJACENT WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR A GALE WARNING.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
JUST NORTH OF ABC ISLANDS. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE NOTED UP TO 80 NM
NORTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE PRODUCING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND JUST EAST OF HONDURAS. FRESH
NE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE SEEN AT THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE NE TO SE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS DOMINATE
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS AND
SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ROUGH TO LOCALLY
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND REACH FRESH TO STRONG FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE
COLOMBIAN LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL
ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN LATE TONIGHT, LEADING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO FRI AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PULSE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA FRI
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE
SLATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING ON
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL.
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N52W TO JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 18N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR AND UP TO 180 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT. FARTHER WEST, A LARGE 1002 MB CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
31N61W IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW, NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN
THE ATLANTIC BASIN. OUTSIDE THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL AREA MENTIONED
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FRESH TO STRONG S TO W TO NW
WINDS ALONG WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS IN MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL
EXIST FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 66W. TO THE WEST,
GENTLE TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS ALONG WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 66W AND THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST.
FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 48W AND THE COLD
FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE
NOTED. FARTHER EAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT
6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS ARE SEEN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
35W AND 48W. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE
WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE S TO SW
WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 65W INTO EARLY FRI, AS
THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH FRI, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXPECTED NORTH OF 16N
AND EAST OF 77W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF
62W BY LATE FRI MORNING. FARTHER WEST, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA. THE COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
LATER TODAY, SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD FRI THROUGH SAT, LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND
LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY SAT. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND.
CHAN
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