658
AXNT20 KNHC 210006
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI MAR 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 24N89W AND TO VERACRUZ,
MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE SEEN OVER THE SW GULF SOUTH OF 21N AND WEST OF 93W. LATEST
OBSERVATION FROM VERACRUZ INDICATES MINIMAL GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST
WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO WITHIN ABOUT
120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EAST OF 93W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS IN THE NW
GULF ARE IN THE RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 FT AND 9 TO 14 FT IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE GULF. ONCE THE FRONT HAS EXITED THE BASIN
LATE TONIGHT, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA WILL ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN TO PULSE UP
TO GALE-FORCE SPEEDS AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL WITH PERIOD OF IS SUSTAINING SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT AT A
PERIOD OF 12-14 FT NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W. AS THE
NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY, THIS AREA OF VERY ROUGH SEAS
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE PROPAGATING
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 12 FT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COASTAL
BORDER OF GUINEA-BISSAU AND GAMBIA, AND CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 01N25W TO 01N40W AND
TO NEAR 01N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OBSERVED.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A GALE WARNING.
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND EAST OF 87W.
SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL. ELSEWHERE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FRONT AND WEST OF 87W, LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE PRESENT ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE BASIN LATE TONIGHT, AND
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF FRI, SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN BASIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY FRI
THROUGH SUN, ENHANCING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
INFORMATION ON A GALE WARNING.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF ABC ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH, AND WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM
13N TO 16N EAST OF ABOUT 79W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR EASTERN SOUTH TO JAMAICA AND TO NEAR 12N77W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES GENERALLY SHOW FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS IN THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. SEAS THERE ARE
4 TO 6 FT. HIGHER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN
72W AND 76W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. THE
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES ALSO SHOW GENTLE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WEST OF ABOUT 78W AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE
BASIN, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT EAST OF 76W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
OCCUR OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GALES POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA SAT NIGHT. ROUGH TO
LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS FRI
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
REGION. ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA
WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT, LEADING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH FRI MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE
OF CUBA FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG
SE WINDS ARE SLATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY
LATE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
INFORMATION ON A GALE WARNING.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH 31N51W TO 24N53W TO 18N59W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A TROUGH TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR AND UP TO 180
NM EAST OF THE FRONT. FARTHER WEST, A LARGE 1003 MB CUT-OFF LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AT 32N59W IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 27N65W TO 25N70W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH
OF 22N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W AND NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 52W AND
58W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTAINS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. OUTSIDE
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, FRESH TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH 8 TO
11 FT SEAS IN MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL EXIST FROM 19N
TO 25N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 66W. TO THE WEST, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 66W AND THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST.
FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 48W AND THE COLD
FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT ARE NOTED. FARTHER EAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS
ARE SEEN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 48W. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 63W
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRI, WITH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT EXPECTED NORTH OF 16N AND EAST OF 75W THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT, AND NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF 62W BY LATE FRI MORNING.
PEAK SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 68W AND
55W INTO FRI MORNING. FARTHER WEST, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA. THE COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
LATER TODAY, SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD FRI THROUGH SAT, LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND
LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY SAT. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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