057
AXNT20 KNHC 210557
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI MAR 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0540 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD AND EXITS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST JUST
NORTH OF NAPLES AND CONTINUES TO THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR VILLAHERMOSA,
MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OFFSHORE OF THE
VERACRUZ AREA, AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE-FORCE THERE.
THE GALE WARNING HAS THUS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONG NE WINDS
TO 30 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, INDICATING THAT THE
FRONT HAS MOVED ASHORE THERE SINCE 0000 UTC. STRONG N TO NW WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN, WITH FRESH TO STRONG
N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NW PORTIONS. 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NW GULF NEAR THE COAST OF
CENTRAL TEXAS. PEAK SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE RANGE FROM 8
TO 12 FT AND EXTEND FROM OFFSHORE OF THE BIG BEND TO THE COAST
NEAR VERACRUZ. OVERCAST LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 94W.
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN
THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN AND SW FLORIDA. ONCE THE FRONT HAS
EXITED THE BASIN LATE TONIGHT, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
RELATIVELY HIGHER PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA WILL ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN TO PULSE UP TO GALE-FORCE
SPEEDS AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, TONIGHT GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
WITH PEAK PERIOD OF 12-13 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT, AND INTO THE
PASSAGES OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS
OF 8 TO 13 FT NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 71W, WITH HIGHEST SEAS
NORTHEAST PORTIONS. THIS AREA OF VERY ROUGH SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WHILE PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD, AND FALL BELOW
12 FT FRIDAY MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06.5N11W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N21W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.5N25W TO 02.5N34W TO NEAR THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS PRESENTLY OBSERVED FROM 00N TO THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN 03W
AND 13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF
04N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON THE EXPIRED GALE WARNING.
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE FORMER GALE AREA NEAR THE COAST OF
VERACRUZ, WHILE STRONG NE WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND STRONG N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE EASTERN BASIN. PEAK SEAS OF 11 TO 12 FT ARE ESTIMATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS BETWEEN 23N AND 24N, TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WILL EXIT THE
BASIN LATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND IT ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF,
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SUN,
INCREASING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE PENINSULA
ADJACENT WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
INFORMATION ON A GALE WARNING.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL LEEWARD ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, A
COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
GENERALLY SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN, SOUTH OF 15N. SEAS
THERE ARE 4 TO 7 FT. HIGHEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE SOUTH OF
13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FT ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
EAST OF 70W, AS LARGE NW SWELL ENTERS THE BASIN THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PERSIST, AND PULSE TO GALE FORCE
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
TONIGHT, LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI MORNING. FRESH NE WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA FRI INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
INFORMATION ON A GALE WARNING.
AN OLD COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRETCHES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 31N50W TO 24N54W TO THE
CENTRAL LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
UP TO 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT, TO THE NORTH OF 21N. FARTHER
WEST, A LARGE 1004 MB CUT-OFF LOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AT
34N57W IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW THROUGH 31N53W AND TO 27N56W. OUTSIDE OF THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
FRESH TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
IN MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ARE PRESENT FROM 24N TO 31N
BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 72W. FURTHER WEST TO THE BAHAMAS,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH 5 TO 8 FT
SEAS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 20N. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE W TO SW
WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND A NEW COLD FRONT THAT
HAS ENTERED THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT, EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SEAS THERE ARE QUICKLY BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 42W AND THE COLD
FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT ARE NOTED. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, A BROAD RIDGE
PREVAILS, CENTERED ON A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N36W. THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS AT
6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND
42W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN
30W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELL
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS OVER
THE NE WATERS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL OCCURRING E OF 70W WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY VERY ROUGH
SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY SAT. FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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