953
AXNT20 KNHC 211814
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI MAR 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING:
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING TO MONDAY MORNING, THESE WINDS OFF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
WILL PEAK AT GALE-FORCE. SEAS OF 11 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE GUINEA COAST NEAR
CONAKRY, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N16W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 04N16W THROUGH 01N30W TO NORTH OF SAR LUIS, BRAZIL AT
01N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED UP TO 140 NM ALONG
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1025 MB HIGH JUST NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE
PRESENT AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF, FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GULF AS A
RESULT, BUT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. AFTERWARD, THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NIGHTLY THROUGH SUN, SUPPORTING PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OVER ADJACENT WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
INFORMATION ON A GALE WARNING.
THE WEAKENING PORTION OF A COLD FRONT LIES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN UP TO 60
NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH 3 TO
5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PERSIST TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE
OF CUBA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WEST OF BERMUDA ACROSS
31N70W TO BEYOND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT. AT CENTRAL ATLANTIC, ANOTHER COLD FRONT CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N51W TO
26N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXIST NEAR AND UP TO
90 NM SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FRESH TO STRONG S TO W TO NW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE
FOUND BEHIND BOTH COLD FRONTS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W,
AND 65W AND 75W. OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE TO SW WINDS
AND 6 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELLS EXIST NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 00N TO
20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO
SE WINDS WITH 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N55W TO 26N65W EARLY SAT, WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION
STALLING AND STARTING TO DISSIPATE THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN DIMINISH. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND SUBSIDE TO MODERATE SEAS BY LATE SAT. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF 55W BY LATE SAT, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 30N.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS NORTH OF 22N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY PULSE
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATE SUN THROUGH TUE.
CHAN
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