527
AXNT20 KNHC 212318
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT MAR 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. WINDS
WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO ABOUT 14 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR CONAKRY, THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 04N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04N15W TO 01N30W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 00N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN
05W AND 10W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE WEST END OF
THE ITCZ FROM 00N TO 02N W OF 46W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF DOMINATES THE
BASIN SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SEAS ARE
5 TO 8 FT PER ALTIMETER DATA IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
SIMILAR SEA HEIGHTS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT NEAR THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER AND IN THE NW GULF WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT.
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER PARTS OF THE GULF WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF, FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A
RESULT, BUT ROUGH SEAS MAY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BY LATE
TONIGHT, THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S
TO SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS IN THE EASTERN BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY THROUGH SUN, SUPPORTING PULSES
OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF MON, BUT WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
BASIN BY TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. PLEASE, REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, AND EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN UP
TO 60 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO FRESH N
TO NE WINDS ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER DATA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND JUST S OF
CABO BEATA IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE MAINLY MODERATE NE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES IN
THE NE CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA EACH
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FROM SUN NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N68W AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING. A 90 NM WIDE BAND OF
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N
AND W OF 68W. SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT WHILE SEAS TO
8 FT ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E, A SECOND COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 26N53W. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW
WINDS ARE N OF 27N AND E OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 45W. THIS FRONT IS
WITHIN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF
989 MB SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION. SEAS OF
8 TO 12 FT IN W TO NW SWELL ARE NEAR THE SECOND FRONT COVERING
ROUGHLY THE WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W WITH HIGHEST SEAS
N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS ARE FROM 13N TO 21N E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA, INCLUDING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
WITHIN THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE S OF 20N, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N55W TO 26N65W EARLY SAT, WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION STALLING AND STARTING TO DISSIPATE THROUGH CENTRAL
CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT NORTH OF
25N THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN DIMINISH. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
ALSO FOLLOW THE FRONT AND SUBSIDE TO MODERATE SEAS BY LATE SAT.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF 55W BY LATE
SAT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ALONG 30N. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 22N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS MAY PULSE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATE SUN
THROUGH TUE.
GR
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