283
AXNT20 KNHC 220514
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT MAR 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING PULSING WINDS TO GALE FORCE
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EACH
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 14 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 11N16W TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO THE COAST
OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF DOMINATES THE
BASIN, SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR W GULF WATERS W OF
95W AND N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WHERE FRESH WINDS ARE PULSING
CURRENTLY. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NIGHTLY THROUGH SUN, SUPPORTING PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OVER ADJACENT WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN MON, BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. PLEASE, REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE SEAS, WHILE MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SLIGHT
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SUN NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N64W AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N78W.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N
AND W OF 63W. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED N OF 27N BETWEEN
64W AND 77W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 20N AND E OF THE FRONT TO
NEAR 40W, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL E OF 40W AND S OF
20N. ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED N OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W DUE TO A
DECAYING NW SWELL THAT DEVELOPED FROM A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY N
OF THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF ROUGH SEAS IS NOTED E OF 31W,
INCLUDING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 31N55W TO 26N65W EARLY SAT, WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION STALLING AND STARTING TO DISSIPATE THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA.
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN DIMINISH. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT AND SUBSIDE TO MODERATE SEAS BY LATE SAT. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF 55W BY LATE SAT,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG
30N. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 22N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY PULSE
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATE SUN THROUGH TUE.
ERA
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