072
AXNT20 KNHC 221651
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT MAR 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 01N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N21W TO
00N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING EAST OF 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED
FROM THE EQUATOR-04N WEST OF 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1023 MB HIGH IS SITUATED OVER THE N GULF THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 2-5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MEXICAN
COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NIGHTLY THROUGH SUN, SUPPORTING PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OVER ADJACENT WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NORTHERN
BASIN LATE MON, BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. PLEASE, REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF
GREATER ANTILLES AND A 1008 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE 6-10 FT. ELSEWHERE, THE TRADES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDA, PUERTO RICO, AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SUN NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 25N68W, THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
25N50W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1035 MB HIGH NORTH OF OUR AREA
AT 38N29W IS HELPING TO PROMOTE GENERALLY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
EAST OF 40W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SEAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF
26N ARE 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL AND SEAS ARE 8-9 FT SOUTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-60W IN MIXED WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE SEAS
ARE 4-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF 55W LATE
TODAY. ROUGH SEAS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TO MODERATE
THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 30N. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 22N INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MON
ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY PULSE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA
LATE WED.
LANDSEA
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