822
AXNT20 KNHC 230515
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN MAR 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING WINDS TO GALE FORCE
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 02N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 02N21W TO 01S36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN
300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN, ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N86W. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF, WHILE FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS PREVAIL W OF 88W. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN. TO THE SW, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE EASTERN BASIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY
THROUGH SUN, SUPPORTING PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER
ADJACENT WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NORTHERN BASIN
LATE MON, BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF BY THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. PLEASE, REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA, A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF GREATER ANTILLES AND A 1006 MB COLOMBIAN
LOW IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE, THE
TRADES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT 2 TO
4 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO 26N61W, THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 24N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE MODERATE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WHILE
SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE NOTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 58W AND
67W. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
W ATLANTIC. E OF THE FRONT, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N51W
TO 20N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 10N AND E OF
40W, INCLUDING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN THIS
AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE, WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF 55W
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 30N. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 22N
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MON,
ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY PULSE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WED.
ERA
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