369
AXNT20 KNHC 232311
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON MAR 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
CAPTURED STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 FT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OF 1032 MB LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA
SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WIND IN THE AGADIR MARINE ZONE OF METEO-FRANCE.
THE MOST RECENT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS.
SEAS ARE 12 TO 14 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. A GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AGADIR THROUGH 25/0000 UTC.
FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 04N17W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N17W TO 02N30W TO 00N50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N E OF 23W. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING PARTS OF LIBERIA AND
SIERRA LEONE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA WHILE A COLD FRONT IS
REACHING CENTRAL TEXAS. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN, GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS OF
1 TO 3 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE PART OF
THE BASIN DUE TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS ALOFT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN BASIN INTO MID-WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING PULSES OF FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SKIRT THE NE GULF WITH LITTLE IMPACT MON NIGHT INTO TUE,
BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE BASIN IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE NW
GULF BY THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. PLEASE, REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS IMPACTING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT OUTSIDE OF
THE GALE AREA OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THESE WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. LIGHTER WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT, WITH NIGHTLY PULSES TO NEAR GALE FORCE LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO MID-WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR
THESE BOUNDARIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION
IS DOMINATED BY A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA IS HELPING TO PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS N OF 12N AND E OF 30W, INCLUDING THE CANARY AND CABO VERDE
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER
DATA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS NORTH OF 22N EARLY THIS WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MON ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA
INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO WATERS BETWEEN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA BY WED.
GR
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