963
AXNT20 KNHC 240605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON MAR 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 29N, AND NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT
AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. VERY RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWED STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 16.5N, WITH 30-35 KT WINDS SOUTH OF
14N. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 8 TO 12 FT IN THIS AREA AND WILL BUILD TO
14 FT LATE TONIGHT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OF 1036 MB LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW
AFRICA SUPPORTS NEAR GALE FORCE NE TO N WINDS IN THE AGADIR
MARINE ZONE OF METEO-FRANCE. WINDS THERE ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO GALE-FORCE ON MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY 9 TO 11 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 13 FT ON MON.
FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 02.5N28W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 00N32W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 02.5S44W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 08W AND 24W AND EXTENDS WELL INLAND TO
THE NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LIBERIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE
W OF 55W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF AMERICA.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION.
UNDER THIS PATTERN, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT.
MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHERE SEAS
ARE 3 TO 5 FT. THE BASIN IS MOSTLY RAIN FREE AT THIS TIME WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW BASIN
DUE TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS ALOFT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN BASIN INTO MID-WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING PULSES OF FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY SKIRT THE NE GULF WITH LITTLE
IMPACT MON NIGHT INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE BASIN
IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS ACROSS THE NW GULF BY THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. PLEASE, REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS GENERALLY DOMINATE THE BASIN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SOUTH OF 18N, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE PATTERN IS ALSO CREATING FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OUTSIDE OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 18N, AND TO 6
FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FAIR SKIES
GENERALLY DOMINATE THE BASIN TONIGHT, WITH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, AND
ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
81W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MON THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT NE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS NEAR AND
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT, WITH NIGHTLY PULSES TO NEAR GALE
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE
WINDS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO MID-
WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS, WHILE ANOTHER SIMILAR SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N48W TO OFFSHORE OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE WESTERN TROUGH, WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH, TO
THE NORTH OF 25N. A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 29N-30N
FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N67W. SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 22N ALONG 60W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION IS DOMINATED BY A
1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW
AFRICA IS HELPING TO PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS N OF
12N AND E OF 32W, INCLUDING THE CANARY AND CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS BASED ON RECENT ALTIMETER
DATA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF
22N, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ALONG ABOUT 30N WILL SUPPORT GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 22N EARLY THIS WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MON THROUGH MID-WEEK, ENABLING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WED.
STRIPLING
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