499
AXNT20 KNHC 242315
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE MAR 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO
NEAR GALE FORCE AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
CAPTURED STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR 14.5N75W
IS REPORTING SEAS TO 12 FT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 13 OR
14 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OF 1031 MB LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW
AFRICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NW TO N GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
AGADIR MARINE ZONE OF METEO-FRANCE. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THESE WINDS. ACCORDING TO METEO-FRANCE, THE GALE WARNING
WILL END AT 25/00 UTC, AND WILL BE IN EFFECT AGAIN ON TUE FROM
25/15 UTC TO 25/21 UTC.
FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SW TO 01N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 01N25W TO COASTAL OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 05W
AND 22W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, NE OF BERMUDA,
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA WHILE A
COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN,
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH.
SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OBSERVED
OVER THE NE GULF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AND ROUGH SEAS. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEARBY
SURFACE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BASIN WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT TO GENTLE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN INTO WED.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY LIKELY THROUGH FRI, SUPPORTING PULSES
OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SKIRT THE NE GULF WITH LITTLE IMPACT TONIGHT INTO TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE BASIN IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE NW GULF BY
THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. PLEASE, REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, PARTICULARLY FROM 11N TO 18N AND E OF 82W. THESE WINDS
ARE REACHING GALE FORCE OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT
BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH
E WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE, EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW, IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT
NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARINE ZONE OF AGADIR IN THE
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST AREA. PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO 22N56W. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND
E FLORIDA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 14N AND E OF 30W, INCLUDING THE CANARY AND
CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS BASED
ON ALTIMETER DATA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH
MODERATE SEAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS S OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
NORTH OF 22N THROUGH WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ENABLING
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE OFF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA INTO WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WED.
GR
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