699
AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE MAR 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO
NEAR GALE FORCE AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
CAPTURED STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS OVER OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE SEAS TO 12 FT ARE BEING
REPORTED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 13 FT BY TUE AND WED MORNING
AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OF 1033 MB LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW
AFRICA WILL SUPPORT NW TO N GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AGADIR MARINE
ZONE OF METEO-FRANCE TUE FROM 25/15 UTC TO 25/21 UTC. ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THESE WINDS.
FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES SW TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 00N30W TO NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05S TO 05N BETWEEN 13W AND 27W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, AND
ALSO OVER THE NE GULF ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, ROUGH SEAS
AND GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1031 MB LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, NE OF
BERMUDA, EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA.
UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS PREVAIL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY NEAR 19N93W TO 26N88W. SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FT
BASIN-WIDE, EXCEPT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STRONG TSTMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BASIN WILL GENERALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
BASIN INTO WED. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING PULSES OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER
ADJACENT WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT THE NE GULF WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TONIGHT INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
BASIN IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE NW GULF BY THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. PLEASE, REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, AND GALES OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE ONGOING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT
NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARINE ZONE OF AGADIR IN THE
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST AREA. PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
OVERALL, THE AZORES AND BERMUDA HIGHS AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS
BETWEEN THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND E FLORIDA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS SYSTEM, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ONGOING BETWEEN
25W AND 70W. EAST OF 25W AND N OF HISPANIOLA, WINDS ARE FRESH TO
STRONG FROM THE NE TO E AND SEAS TO 12 FT OVER THE E SUBTROPICAL
WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
NORTH OF 22N THROUGH WED. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
PULSE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA INTO WED. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA
WED.
RAMOS
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