434
AXNT20 KNHC 260003
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE MAR 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING:
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 26N AND TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS OFFSHORE FROM
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR-GALE TO GALE-
FORCE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS UNDER THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 11 FT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
AGADIR MARINE ZONE:
GALE WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THE AGADIR MARINE ZONE. FOR
THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST, REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR CONAKRY, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N18W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO 01N30W, THEN TURNS WESTWARD TO
NORTH OF BELEM, BRAZIL AT 01N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BUT NEAR THE ITCZ
FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 21W AND 47
..GULF OF AMERICA
A MODEST COLD FRONT REACHES WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
JUST EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. FARTHER SOUTH, A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF.
COINCIDE WITH A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF,
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS. OTHERWISE, A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR NEW ORLEANS IS DOMINATING
THE REST OF THE GULF. LATEST VIS SATELLITE LOOP ALONG WITH LOCAL
MARINE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A PLUM OF SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF,
POSSIBLY RELATED TO AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO, CAUSING REDUCED
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5 NM. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO ENE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE EVIDENT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE TO
SE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BASIN WILL GENERALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF INTO
WED. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AFTER FRI. IT WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH FRI. THE
MODEST COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE BASIN IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY THU. THESE WINDS WILL
BECOME FRESH TO STRONG THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHILE EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE JUST ABOUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN, THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FRI NIGHT. SEAS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
POSSIBLY BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF FRI AND
FRI NIGHT. YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING
ABOUT A GALE WARNING.
A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE NEAR 26N CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A FAIR
TRADE- WIND REGIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL, SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4
TO 6 FT DOMINATE THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, BESIDES REACHING GALE-FORCE TONIGHT, NE TO E
WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE DURING NIGHTTIME THROUGH FRI, AND FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. SIMILAR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA, AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM LATE
THU THROUGH EARLY SAT, EXCEPT THE WINDS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA ACROSS
31N76W TO BEYOND NORTHERN FLORIDA. IN THE VICINITY, A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N76W TO BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AIDED BY DIVERGENT WINDS EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING UP FROM THE
BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO NEAR 32N BETWEEN 73W AND THE FLORIDA COAST.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN
THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE
EVIDENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH, FROM 23N
TO 31N AND WEST OF 60W. FARTHER EAST, NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND
60W, A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN LARGE NW SWELL EXIST. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 02N TO 23N/26N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES/GREAT BAHAMA BANK, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 6
TO 9 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO ESE WINDS ALONG
WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTH, EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N76W TO INLAND
FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
WILL PULSE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA INTO WED. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
BERMUDA WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF
28N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SAT NIGHT. BY LATE SUN, FRESH TO STRONG
NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF ABOUT 26N AND EAST OF 78W.
CHAN
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