484
AXNT20 KNHC 260541
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED MAR 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0520 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING:
A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 38N39W, AND A 1008 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO GALE FORCE ONGOING OFFSHORE NW
COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 8-10 FT, EXCEPT TO 11 FT
DURING THE GALE PERIOD.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N15W TO 01N30W, THEN TURNS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF
BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02S TO 05N BETWEEN 14W AND 28W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB LOCATED OFFSHORE SE LOUISIANA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WATERS
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE SE
AND NW BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW GULF, LEADING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
OTHERWISE, SEAS ARE 3-4 FT BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
TO GENTLE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN INTO
WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD INTO THE BASIN THU, SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF. THESE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHILE EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT. SEAS GENERATED
BY THESE WINDS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT IN THE NW GULF FRI AND
FRI NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A
GALE WARNING.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN, CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND STRONG
RIDGE CENTERED BY A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 38N39W. SEAS OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN ARE 5-7 FT WHILE IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
WATERS SEAS ARE 8-11 FT WITH NEAR TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI AND TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM LATE
THU THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS E OF 75W AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039
MB HIGH NEAR 38N39W. THIS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS S OF 25N AND E OF 72W, AND FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
FROM 05N TO 27N BETWEEN 27W AND 55W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE
ALSO ONGOING BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF W
AFRICA ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT. OTHERWISE, OVER THE FAR SW
N ATLANTIC WATERS THE REMNANTS OF THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N75W TO 27N79W AND ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK, THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT
OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA INTO
WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WATERS BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND
BERMUDA WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS S OF 28N
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO SAT NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS START TO DECREASE.
RAMOS
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