385
AXNT20 KNHC 261800
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED MAR 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE GUINEA COAST NEAR
KAMSAR, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N16W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 05N16W ACROSS 03N33W TO NORTHWEST OF BELEM, BRAZIL
AT 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W, AND UP TO 100
NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1023 MB HIGH OVER NEW
ORLEANS TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS ARE
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
NORTHWESTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
AND SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE SEEN AT THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. MAINLY GENTLE NE TO SE WINDS AT 2
TO 4 FT EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF TODAY. WINDS WILL
PULSE, BECOME FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN MODERATE AND FRESH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION THU, THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHILE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT. SEAS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS
WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION FRI AND
FRI NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE SAME LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE AHEAD OF IT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE, A FAIR TRADE-WIND PATTERN
CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE FOUND AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO ESE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS AT 6 TO 7 FT DOMINATE THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ENE
WINDS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE NORTHWESTERN
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, STRONGEST AT
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND OVER THE WATERS
BETWEEN CUBA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SIMILAR WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE CENTRAL HONDURAS AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM THU
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY SWELL MAY
IMPACT THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WEST OF BERMUDA
ACROSS 31N71W TO END AT THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. AIDED BY A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 26N72W, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. AT
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, A WEAK COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AZORES ACROSS 31N24W TO 28N37W.
PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 60 NM SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N TO SE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COAST. FARTHER EAST, NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 65W, MODERATE TO
FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 10 FT
EXIST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 02N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT
SEAS ARE FOUND. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO ESE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT
AND WILL REACH FROM 31N56W TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
BY EARLY FRI, THEN GRADUALLY WASHING OUT THROUGH EARLY SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF 29N BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SAME WATERS AS A RESULT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.
CHAN
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