278
AXNT20 KNHC 270832
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU MAR 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 05.5N09.5W AND
EXTENDS SW TO 04N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N13W TO 02S43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02N TO 06N BETWEEN 07W AND 12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 31W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH LOCATED OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. LIGHT
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH
CENTER. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT, PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
OF WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE NW PORTION TODAY. WINDS
OVER THE NW GULF WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT
INTO FRI WHILE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
EARLY SAT. SEAS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT, ARE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT,
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, MODERATE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT, ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
SPEEDS AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF CUBA,
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SIMILAR WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE CENTRAL
HONDURAS AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE IN
THE LEE OF CUBA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY SWELL MAY IMPACT
THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF
THE TROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO 27N72W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT, ARE WEST OF THE
TROUGH. A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N26W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 1-12 FT ARE WITHIN 210 NM NW OF THE
LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT,
PREVAILING.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS SOUTH OF 29N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THESE WATERS AS A RESULT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF
THE SE UNITED STATES COAST BY EARLY TUE.
AL
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