700
AXNT20 KNHC 281008
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI MAR 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 04N20W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 02.5S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN
18W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 00N
TO 03N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W, AND FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 40W AND
52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED OVER THE NW
GULF, MAINLY N OF 25N AND W OF 95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH SPEEDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
8 FT BY SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF BY MON, AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO
BY MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA, IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATE THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SHALLOW MOISTURE, EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE AT NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. NE SWELL WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS
WEEKEND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 F.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 25N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND NEAR
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 21N65W. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS
WEST OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. THE FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
BREAK UP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL OFF THE CAROLINAS, AND A 1035 MB HIGH
PRESSURE AREA LOCALED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N36W. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20W AND 60W.
OUTSIDE OF THIS LARGE REGION, NE TO E WINDS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WITH PREVAILING MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH LATE SAT WHILE WEAKENING. EXPECT FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL START TO DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE
SE UNITED STATES COAST BY EARLY TUE.
GR
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