266
AXNT20 KNHC 281748
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI MAR 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 04N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04N17W TO 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 18W AND
70W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
ANALYZED OVER THE W GULF AS OF 1200 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE SEAS. SEAS ARE
LOCALLY ROUGH ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N
BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF HAS FORMED INTO A SQUALL LINE AS OF
1500 UTC, WHICH EXTENDS FROM 28N94W TO 22N97W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 25-50 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE AXIS,
WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING AND EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NW GULF BY MON, AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
NE MEXICO BY MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO STRONG E WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BASIN OCCURRING OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA.
THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE AREA, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE OF CAPE
HATTERAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND COMBINE WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW TO SUPPORT PULSING WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE AT NIGHT
AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THROUGH
MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LARGE E SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 21N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS
WEST OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. THE FRONT BREAKS UP THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND CHARLESTON, SC, AND A 1033 MB
HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOCALED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N35W. THIS
PATTERN SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20W
AND 60W. OUTSIDE OF THIS LARGE REGION, NE TO E WINDS ARE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WITH PREVAILING MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF
CAPE HATTERAS, WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO NEAR
INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THE FRONT MOVES SE AND GRADUALLY
BECOMES E TO W ALIGNED ALONG ABOUT 23N BY LATE SAT WHILE
WEAKENING. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
UP TO 12 FT N OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DECREASE
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OF
BERMUDA AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE
UNITED STATES COAST BY EARLY TUE.
ADAMS
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