563
AXNT20 KNHC 051727
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT APR 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING/SWELL EVENT: A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL ENTER THE DISCUSSION WATERS
SOUTH OF 31N THIS EVENING. SW WINDS TO GALE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN AROUND 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE SUN MORNING AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, A RELATED LARGE N SWELL WILL
START IMPACTING THE WATERS EAST OF 62W TONIGHT AND WILL SUBSIDE BY
MID-WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS 12 TO AROUND 20 FT SOUTH
OF 31N FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTERWARD. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH TO 18N MON NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SW OF BERMUDA AND A 1008 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL PEAK AT GALE-FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING 12 TO 14
FT UNDER THE STRONGEST WINDS.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT
WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE N
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF SUN AND MON, WITH NORTHERLY GALES FORECAST NEAR
TAMPICO ON SUN MORNING, AND OFF VERACRUZ SUN AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS ON
ALL THREE GALE WARNINGS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 10N15W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N21W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N21W TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 04N AND W OF 22W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF
TODAY, BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
BERMUDA AND 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO. THIS SUSTAINED
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS W OF 85W AND N OF 21N, WITH PEAK SEAS OF 12 FT. SEAS
ARE 5 TO 8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA
FOG WITHIN ROUGHLY 120 NM OF THE TX AND LA COASTS, WITH LOW
VISIBILITY BEING A POTENTIAL HAZARD IN THESE AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE FRESH TO NEAR-GALE SE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF BASIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF
OF THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING. FRESH TO NEAR GALE N WINDS AND
RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SUN THROUGH MON, WITH NORTHERLY GALES FORECAST NEAR TAMPICO ON SUN
MORNING, AND OFF VERACRUZ THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS. THE FRONT WILL
THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUE FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA
PERSIST TODAY DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES, INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES, EXCEPT NEAR GALE-FORCE IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN,
WITH LOCALIZED SEAS UP TO 12 TO 14 FT OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE
WINDS N OF COLOMBIA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE, WITH ANOTHER ROUND
FORECAST TONIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE WEAKENING BERMUDA HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD, TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE REDUCED TO
MODERATE TO FRESH. A COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
TUE WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND IT.
THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MID-
WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
40W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS ALONG
31N24W AND CONTINUES TO 23N49W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
ANCHORED BY 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N69W. THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND 8 TO 10
FT SEAS FROM OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. MOSTLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH S OF
20N WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
FORCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND RESULTANT ROUGH SEAS FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE NE WATERS TONIGHT, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME, A LARGE N SWELL WILL START IMPACTING THE WATERS
EAST OF 62W TONIGHT AND WILL SUBSIDE BY MID-WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG
S WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF OF THE COAST MON
NIGHT, AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA BY MID-WEEK WHERE IT
MAY STALL AND BECOME A TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
ERA
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