535
AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN APR 06 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING/SWELL EVENT: A CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N53W TO 32N64W WILL ENTER THE
FAR NORTHERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS THIS EVENING. SW
WINDS TO GALE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AROUND 90 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-
FORCE SUN MORNING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, A
RELATED LARGE N SWELL WILL START IMPACTING THE WATERS EAST OF
62W TONIGHT AND WILL SUBSIDE BY MID- WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL
PRODUCE SEAS 12 TO AROUND 20 FT SOUTH OF 31N FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTERWARD. SEAS OF 12 FT OR
GREATER WILL REACH TO 18N MON NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1025 MB ANALYZED SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N71W
AND A 1010 MB COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT GALE-FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SEAS
REACHING TO 12 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT
WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE TEXAS THIS EVENING, AND AND REACH FROM
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN MORNING.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE N WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND
11 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN THROUGH
MON, WITH NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED BRIEFLY OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO
SUN MORNING, AND OFF OF VERACRUZ SUN AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE MON MORNING, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS ON
ALL THREE GALE WARNINGS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR 10N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N18W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO BELOW THE EQUATOR AT 28W AND
CONTINUES TO 02S34W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 12W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF 03N25W AND OF 02N31W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN, GENERATED BY A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OF
1025 MB OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N71W AND LOW PRESSURE
OF 1006 MB ANALYZED IN NE MEXICO. THIS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS W OF 85W AND N OF 21N, WITH PEAK SEAS AROUND 11 FT. SEAS
ARE 5 TO 8 FT ARE OVER THE REST OF THE BASIN. OTHERWISE, A COLD
FRONT HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST, AND EXTENDS FROM
NEAR GALVESTON/HOUSTON TO 27N97W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM
FRONT TO INLAND NE MEXICO. IT CURVES TO THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR FAR
NORTHERN MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INLAND NE TEXAS, AND STRETCHING WELL NORTHEASTWARD
TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REVEAL
SEA FOG OVER MOST OF THE NW GULF WATERS PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITY.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE FRESH TO NEAR-GALE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
STRONG LATE- SEASON COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST
THIS EVENING, AND REACH FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN MORNING. FRESH TO NEAR GALE N WINDS AND
RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SUN THROUGH MON, WITH NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED BRIEFLY OFFSHORE
OF TAMPICO SUN MORNING, AND OFF OF VERACRUZ SUN AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS,
THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUE. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES FROM TODAY HIGHLIGHTED A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
EAST OF ABOUT 82W. THIS IS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW.
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE WEST OF 82W.
SEAS ARE 6 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN, WITH
LOCALIZED SEAS UP TO 12 FT OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA
COLOMBIA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF 70W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN MORNING,
WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE SUN
THROUGH MID-WEEK, LEADING TO DIMINISHING TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN TUE MORNING, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS FILLING IN BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS AND THROUGH THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
40W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES DESCRIPTION OF A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 31N19W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
26N30W TO 24N40W AND TO NEAR 22N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
PRESENT THIS FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND 8 TO 10
FT SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N69W. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH
THE BAHAMAS. MOSTLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 20N WHERE SEAS
ARE 6 TO 9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 30N ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS FROM OFFSHORE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THERE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE N SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START IMPACTING THE
WATERS EAST OF 65W TONIGHT, THEN SUBSIDE LATE WED THROUGH THU.
FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH MON, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF OF THE EAST COAST MON NIGHT, AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL CUBA BY MID-WEEK, WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS.
AGUIRRE
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