266
AXNT20 KNHC 061722
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN APR 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING/SWELL EVENT: A COLD FRONT IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD EAST OF BERMUDA AND IS NOW ALONG 30N. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SW WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE GALE
FORCE WINDS, BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED LARGE N SWELL IS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD EAST OF 65W THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING AND DISSIPATING ALONG 20N BY LATE TUE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
THE SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS 12 FT AS FAR SOUTH AS 18N THROUGH MON
NIGHT, WITH HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 30N AROUND 23 FT. THE SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WEST GULF CURRENTLY. GALE-FORCE NW WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OFF TAMPICO, MEXICO, AND WILL
DEVELOP OFF VERACRUZ, MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS PREVAIL IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TONIGHT, WHILE THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS ON
BOTH WARNINGS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR 10N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N20W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO NEAR THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE WITHIN
200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOTH BOUNDARIES AND W OF 10W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N91W TO 19N96W.
LATEST ALTIMETER DATA DEPICTS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS W OF THE
FRONT, WHILE SCATTEROMETER/OBS DATA SHOWS STRONG TO NEAR GALE NW
WINDS IN THE SAME AREA (OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING AREA). FRESH
SE TO S WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 5 TO 8
FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS SUSTAINING AREAS OF SEA FOG, AND
PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VISIBILITY IS 2 TO 5 MILES IN THESE
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF OF TAMPICO
THROUGH MIDDAY, AND OFF VERACRUZ THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THERE WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE INTO MON NIGHT, AS THE FRONT REACHES
FROM CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA TO NEAR MERIDA, MEXICO, BUT STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TUE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN. EXPECT GENTLE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT SEAS WED INTO THU IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST GULF, WHERE
MODERATE NW SWELL MAY PERSIST INTO WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA, WHILE STRONG WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO CONFIRM FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN,
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, SOUTH OF CUBA IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, AND SOUTH OF 10N OFF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THESE WINDS
ARE DUE TO A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF
BERMUDA, AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 9 TO 12 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OFF
BELIZE, 7 TO 8 FT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND 5 TO 8 FT
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED BETWEEN
HAITI AND JAMAICA AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BERMUDA HIGH AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN
TUE MORNING, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FILLING
IN BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO NE HONDURAS THROUGH THU BEFORE DISSIPATING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NE ATLANTIC WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DESCRIBED
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE NOTED NEAR THE FRONT COVERING THE AREA NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 20W AND 59W. FARTHER WEST, 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N70W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS NEAR THE APPROACHES OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NORTH OF
HAITI. IT ALSO SHOW E TO SE WINDS IN THE OLD BAHAMA CHANNEL
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE
EVIDENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS. FARTHER
EAST, FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED OFF SENEGAL. GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE N
SWELL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N50W TO 28N66W.
MODERATE TO LARGE N-NE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS E OF 65W
THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND NEAR
THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND FRESH TO STRONG S
WINDS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STALL FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA
BY MID-WEEK, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS.
ERA
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