027
AXNT20 KNHC 070329
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON APR 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SWELL EVENT: RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA AND
SOFAR BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM VERY LARGE SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE TROPICAL WATERS. THE LARGE
WELL IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING FROM A STORM
CENTER NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES TO 31N26W TO 24N40W TO 26N60W. WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 24 FT ARE OBSERVED NEAR 31N40W, WITH HIGHER VALUES
NOTED FARTHER NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT ARE EVIDENT
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 25W AND 55W, WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12 TO 15
SECONDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF 12 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH AS FAR
SOUTH AS 18N BY TONIGHT, EAST OF 50W. THE SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW
12 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, BUT WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
IN A COMBINATION OF NW SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD WAVES DUE TO THE
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY, ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY THIS EVENING. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON VIVIDLY DISPLAYED NEAR GALE TO GALE-
FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 28N.
BOTH ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT WITH THESE WINDS, WITH HIGHER SEAS OF
9 TO 14 FT OVER THE SW GULF. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF OF
VERACRUZ THROUGH MIDDAY MON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE COAST
OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
03N20W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO 02S30W TO NEAR
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W, AND FROM 03S TO 01S
BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING FROM A STORM CENTER NORTHWEST OF
THE AZORES TO 31N26W TO 24N40W TO 26N60W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE SW WINDS WITHIN
90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N, AND FRESH TO STRONG
FOLLOWING THE FRONT EAST OF 45W. IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE SWELL
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, THE LEADING EDGE OF
WAVE HEIGHTS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 21N AND
EAST OF 65W. FARTHER WEST, 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
29N68W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG S WINDS MAY BE ACTIVE OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA, BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE GULF. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSIST AT THE NORTHERN ENTRANCE TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PERSIST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, EXCEPT FOR FRESH N WINDS OFF
SENEGAL. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE THE AREA OF LARGE
NW SWELL.
A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY,
ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE CURRENTLY. OUTSIDE THE AREA
OF GALE FORCE WINDS OFF VERACRUZ, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS COVER THE WESTERN GULF WEST OF
THE FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT, A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA
THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED IN MOST AREAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE FRONT NORTH OF
25N. THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD, REACHING
FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
MON MORNING, FROM NEAR MARCO ISLAND, FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEAST
YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE MORNING, THEN EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BASIN BY TUE EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH MON EVENING,
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU TO PRODUCE GENTLE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT SEAS IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST GULF, WHERE MODERATE NW SWELL
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG TRADES PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA, GULF OF VENEZUELA, THE GULF
OF HONDURAS, AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE BREEZES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA, AND FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE 7 TO 10 FT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN, 6 TO 8 FT IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS, AND 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. A FEW STREAMER-RELATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WEST OF JAMAICA, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MON
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS ALL BUT
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE, AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD, REACHING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHEAST HONDURAS THU BEFORE STALLING AND
DISSIPATING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
LARGE SWELL IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE COLD FRONT
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED NEAR THE FRONT COVERING THE AREA NORTH
OF 24N BETWEEN 20W AND 59W. FARTHER WEST, A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER
IS ANALYZED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N75W. THIS PATTERN
SET-UP SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS NEAR THE APPROACHES
OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NORTH OF HAITI AND MOSTLY FRESH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH HE OLD BAHAMA CHANNEL BETWEEN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS. FARTHER EAST, FRESH NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED
OFF SENEGAL. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, WHILE
FRESH S TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK, ALLOWING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STALL FROM BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL CUBA BY WED, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
CHRISTENSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page