617
AXNT20 KNHC 071745
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON APR 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SWELL EVENT: LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA AND
SOFAR BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM VERY LARGE SWELL CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE TROPICAL WATERS. THE
LARGE WELL IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING FROM A
STORM CENTER NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES TO 31N23W TO 21N45W TO
25N63W. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 20 FT ARE NOTED NEAR 31N40W, WITH
HIGHER VALUES NOTED FARTHER NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT
ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 20W AND 53W, WITH WAVE PERIODS
OF 12 TO 15 SECONDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF 12 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY
REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 18N BY TONIGHT, EAST OF 50W. THE SWELL WILL
DECAY BELOW 12 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
BUT WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IN A COMBINATION OF NW SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD WAVES DUE
TO THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE CANARY
ISLANDS.
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG LATE-SEASON FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THAT GALE FORCE NW WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N24W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 00S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ALONG THE
ITCZ AND W OF 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS OF 15Z, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N86W TO 19N92W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS OFF THE COAST VERACRUZ. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 8 TO 13 FT WEST OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT
ARE EVIDENT EAST OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS THE FRONT WEAKENS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AGAIN
TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY EXIT THE BASIN BY TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TUE
NIGHT THROUGH THU TO PRODUCE GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS IN ALL
BUT THE SOUTHEAST GULF, WHERE MODERATE NW SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY WED. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU INTO FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG TRADES PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE BREEZES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA, AND FROM PANAMA
TO NICARAGUA. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 8 TO 9 FT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, 6 TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AND 5 TO 7 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE, AND
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD, REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHEAST
HONDURAS THU BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
LARGE SWELL IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 20N E OF 55W. N OF THE BOUNDARY, FRESH
N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE N SWELL PREVAIL. S OF THE BOUNDARY, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES OFF THE NORTH COAST
OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER WEST, A 1022
MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N57W. THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS. FARTHER EAST, FRESH NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED OFF
SENEGAL. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT, THEN STALL FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
CUBA BY WED. STRONG NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND S
BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 28N, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE
CONDITIONS WED OR WED NIGHT N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS.
ERA
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