475
AXNT20 KNHC 072349
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE APR 08 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: N SWELL THAT CONTINUES
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND TOWARD THE TROPICAL
WATERS IS PRODUCING VERY ROUGH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING TO 17 FT AT
13-15 SECONDS ROUGHLY NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN A FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N21W, SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N31W AND 55W. THE LEADING EDGE
OF 12 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 19N TONIGHT AND
EAST OF 50W. THE SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 12 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT,
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 40W THOUGH LATE WED
NIGHT OR EARLY ON THU DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OF 31N ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THAT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL VERY ROUGH WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THOSE
WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N23W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO NEAR THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 11W-15W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA, FLORIDA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO INLAND THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF
24N. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE EARLIER GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT WERE
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE ENDED, HOWEVER, BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHINDS THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 7 TO 11 FT
WEST OF THE FRONT, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT NORTH OF 26N WEST 94W.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FT IN W SWELL ARE EAST OF THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, EXCEPT LOWER SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE EAST
OF 85W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
GULF ON TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH STARTING TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. A SECOND, RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT, IS LIKELY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF LATE THU INTO FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TRADES COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N. WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF
5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE
MORNING THEN TRACK SE BEFORE STALLING BY THU FROM EASTERN CUBA TO
NICARAGUA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THROUGH WED, THEN DIMINISH.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
LARGE SWELL IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC POSITION OF
31N21W, SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N31W AND WESTWARD ALONG 20N TO NEAR
61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF
THE FRONT TO NEAR 18W AND NORTH OF 26N. TO THE EAST OF 55W AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE N
SWELL CONTINUE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 30N58W. THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ARE EVIDENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS.
FARTHER EAST, FRESH NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED OFF
SENEGAL. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, LARGE N SWELL IMPACTING WATERS N
OF 20N AND E OF 60W WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO WED.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OFFSHORE FLORIDA WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND
E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLY FORMING IN THAT LOCATION
LATE WED INTO THU. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL THU FROM BERMUDA
TO EASTERN CUBA, THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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