359
AXNT20 KNHC 080000
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE APR 08 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: N SWELL THAT CONTINUES
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND TOWARD THE TROPICAL
WATERS IS PRODUCING VERY ROUGH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING TO 17 FT AT
13-15 SECONDS ROUGHLY NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN A FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N21W, SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N31W AND 55W. THE LEADING EDGE
OF 12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 19N AND
EAST OF 50W TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 12 FT THROUGH
TUE NIGHT, HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 40W THOUGH
LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY ON THU DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE DIVING SOUTH OF 31N ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL VERY ROUGH WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THOSE WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N23W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO NEAR THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 11W-15W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA, FLORIDA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO INLAND THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF
24N. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE EARLIER GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT WERE
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE ENDED, HOWEVER, BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHINDS THE FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 7
TO 11 FT WEST OF THE FRONT, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT NORTH OF 26N WEST
94W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN W SWELL ARE EAST OF THE FRONT TO NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, EXCEPT LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FT
ARE EAST OF 85W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
GULF ON TUE. WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH STARTING TUE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND, RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT, IS LIKELY
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF LATE THU INTO FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TRADES COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE
MORNING THEN TRACK SE BEFORE STALLING BY THU FROM EASTERN CUBA TO
NICARAGUA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THROUGH WED, THEN DIMINISH.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
LARGE SWELL IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC POSITION OF
31N21W, SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N31W AND WESTWARD ALONG 20N TO NEAR
61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF
THE FRONT TO NEAR 18W AND NORTH OF 26N. TO THE EAST OF 55W AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE N
SWELL CONTINUE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
ALLOWING FOR FRESH TRADES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
30N58W. THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EVIDENT
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT WAVE HEIGHTS.
FARTHER EAST, FRESH NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED OFF
SENEGAL. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, LARGE N SWELL IMPACTING THE WATERS
NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 60W WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD
INTO WED. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OFFSHORE FLORIDA WILL INCREASE
AND EXPAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLY FORMING IN
THAT LOCATION LATE WED INTO THU. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WAVE
HEIGHTS CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL THU FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA, THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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