070
AXNT20 KNHC 080941
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE APR 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: N SWELL THAT CONTINUES
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND TOWARD THE TROPICAL
WATERS IS PRODUCING VERY ROUGH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 16 FT AT
13-15 SECONDS ROUGHLY NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 50W TO 30W NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS. THE SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 12 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT
WEST OF 35W AND SOUTH OF 27N. FARTHER EAST, 12 TO 14 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL ACCOMPANY A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING FROM THE AZORES
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS WED AND WED NIGHT, BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO
THU.
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE WED. FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY WED AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED NIGHT, WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE WED MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON, AND SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N20W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N15W TO 00N30W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
01N47W. TO NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR VENICE, FLORIDA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
FOLLOW THE FRONT. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 7 TO 10 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF, WITH MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. A SECOND, RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT, IS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF LATE THU INTO FRI. FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
FROM ALONG THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN TO NEAR TELA IN NORTHWEST
HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA,
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH SE WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED OFF
HONDURAS, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. RECENT BUOY AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES SHOW 5
TO 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND 4 TO 6
FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK, BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO NORTHEAST HONDURAS LATE THU. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO
N WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WED, THEN DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK, WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.
FARTHER EAST, LARGE N SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OFF THE LEEWARD
AND WINDWARD ISLANDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH
TO STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE REMNANTS OF
THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
CONCERNING THE UPCOMING GALE WARNING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
LARGE SWELL EVENT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
STRONG WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, ANOTHER, WEAKER COLD FRONT
REACHES FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 19N40W. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N55W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH E TO SE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
LARGE N SWELL COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC, AS
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG SW WINDS ARE AHEAD OF AND
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA
CURRENTLY REACHING FROM 31N79W TO CAPE CANAVERAL. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST,
EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA BY LATE WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE NE WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W LATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE WED MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THU AS
THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FRI NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS. FARTHER WEST, LARGE N SWELL IMPACTING WATERS EAST
OF 60W WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT.
CHRISTENSEN
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