756
AXNT20 KNHC 082246
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED APR 09 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: AN EXTENSIVE SET OF
N SWELL THAT CONTINUES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND TOWARD THE TROPICAL WATERS IS PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS AT 13-15
SECONDS NORTH OF 13N EAST OF ABOUT 60W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.
THE SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 12 FT THROUGH TONIGHT W OF 40W. TO THE
EAST, VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
FROM THE AZORES TO THE CANARY ISLANDS ON WED, BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO THU.
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N75W TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY WED EVENING. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY WED AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W TONIGHT
INTO WED NIGHT, WITH WINDS REACHING GALE- FORCE WED MORNING
THROUGH WED EVENING ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 15 FT.
WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N22W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N22W TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W AND TO NEAR
THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 03N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
34W-40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN
CUBA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE
BASIN, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FT OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE NW GULF. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SMALL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO ALONG AND JUST
INLAND THE COAST OF CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS
THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE BASIN. A SECOND,
RELATIVELY WEAK, COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS
FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEAST PART OF HONDURAS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS FRONT. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE DATA ALSO DEPICTS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE
BASIN, WITH EMBEDDED STRONG SPEEDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE SEA. BOTH
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MODERATE
WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER THU. THE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST, LARGE N SWELL
WILL IMPACT ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH
THU. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
LATE FRI INTO SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING THE UPCOMING GALE WARNING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
LARGE SWELL EVENT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N75W TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 6 TO 8 FT
WITH THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT, WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
WITHIN 60-120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N.
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, A WEAKER COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
31N16W TO 20N28W, THEN TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO NEAR 17N41W. A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AT 29N52W, WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD RIDGING STRETCHING
EASTWARD TO NEAR 20W AND WESTWARD TO NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE RELATED GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
LARGE N SWELL COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC, AS
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WED, THEN GRADUALLY STALL AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO EAST INTO LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE
WEAKENING WHILE THE FRONT ALSO DISSIPATES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT, AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WED MORNING, THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
WED EVENING. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD IN THE AREA OF THE GALE
WINDS. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WEAKENS THU,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA LATE FRI, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST WINDS.
AGUIRRE
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