189
AXNT20 KNHC 091801
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED APR 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TO A 1014 MB LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
28N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE LOW BETWEEN
66W AND 76W. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN GALE
FORCE NE WINDS N OF 30N TO THE WEST OF FRONT TO ABOUT 77W.
HOWEVER, FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS EXTEND AS FAR AS 80W
AND 29N. PEAK SEAS ARE 14 FT PER ALTIMETER DATA. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHILE IT
WEAKENS, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE.
SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE EARLY THU.
EAST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NW SWELL HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE AND SOFAR BUOY DATA SHOW SEAS TO
13 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 26W-33W. THESE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N22W, WHICH IS GENERATING GALES
N OF THE AREA WHILE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANARY
ISLANDS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THU TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE, THEN SUBSIDE AS
THE LOW WEAKENS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N20W TO 00N30W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ACTIVE SOUTH OF 03N WEST OF 33W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1022 MB HIGH IS JUST OFFSHORE LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
BASIN-WIDE, WHICH IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS W OF 88W, AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE E OF 88W. SEAS
ARE 2-4 FT ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT 5-6 FT IN THE SE GULF WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS LIE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS IN THE E GULF WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH FRI MORNING. A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT OVER THE NE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO EASTERN HONDURAS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NW WINDS
W OF 82W WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CUBA TO HONDURAS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS W OF THE
FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FRESH WINDS THEN
CONTINUING OFF HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO
THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING A GALE WARNING N OF A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NE OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS, AND A LARGE SWELL EVENT IN THE EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO A 1014 MB LOW NE OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG TO
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AFFECTING MAINLY THE REGION N OF 29N BETWEEN
72W AND 79W. PEAK SEAS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW ARE 14 FT WITH 8 FT
SEAS REACHING AS FAR AS 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW THAT IS GENERATING GALES N OF THE AREA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE W TO NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE AFFECTING THE
WATERS N OF 24N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 33W. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS TO 16 FT ARE ALSO ONGOING OVER THAT REGION WITH 8-10 FT
SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL EXTENDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS.
SURFACE RIDGING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL WATERS WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, GALE FORCE WINDS N OF A 1014 MB LOW
NE OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KT TONIGHT AS THE
LOW SLIGHTLY MOVES SW WHILE WEAKING. THE STATIONARY FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND EXTENDING TO CENTRAL CUBA IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE ON THU AND THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
LATE FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA LATE FRI, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW
WINDS.
RAMOS
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