895
AXNT20 KNHC 100312
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU APR 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 28N75W. NE WINDS TO GALE FORCE PERSIST THIS EVENING
BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH.
SPECIFICALLY, THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 73W AND 77W, ALONG WITH 12 TO 16 FT SEAS.
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 29N, WEST OF
THE FRONT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS ALSO INDICATED
STRONG N WINDS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND CAPE CANAVERAL, ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND GALES TO END. SEAS WILL BEING
TO SUBSIDE EARLY THU.
EAST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN MADEIRA AND THE
CANARY ISLANDS. LARGE NW SWELL HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 12 TO
17 FT CONTINUE NORTH OF 25N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 30W., BEING
GENERATED BY A GALE- PRODUCING LOW PRESSURE NE OF THE REGION.
THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU, BEFORE
SUBSIDING AS THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU TO 04N20W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO 03N35W AND THEN TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 15W AND 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
NEAR 27N91W. FARTHER EAST, A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 25N88W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF, ALONG WITH 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS. GENTLE BREEZES AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS IN THE EASTERN
GULF WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH FRI MORNING. A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE W GULF
SUN, THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PERSIST WEST OF THE
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG E
WINDS PULSING OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. MODERATE BREEZES AND 3
TO 5 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE WATERS OFF JAMAICA. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TOMORROW. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL
STRENGTHEN WINDS OFF NICARAGUA FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MON. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN N
SWELL OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
SUBSIDE TOMORROW.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS
REGARDING A GALE WARNING NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS, AND LARGE SWELL IN THE EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO ALONG 25N TO NEAR 25N35W. NORTH OF THE FRONT, STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS PREVAIL, ALONG WITH THE LARGE SEAS
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND 7 TO 10 FT TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS WATERS EAST OF
55W AS WELL AS WATERS SOUTH OF 20N. ELSEWHERE WEST OF 55W AND
OUTSIDE THE AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION, MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT PERSIST.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS NORTH OF 27N.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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