196
AXNT20 KNHC 110314
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI APR 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 09N13W TO 04N15W TO 01N20W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO NEAR 03S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND
30W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR
27N92W. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF,
WITH FRESH WINDS PULSING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT IN THESE AREAS. GENTLE BREEZES AND 1
TO 3 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. AREAS OF SMOKE DUE TO AGRICULTURAL FIRES
ONSHORE ARE NOTED OFF TAMPICO IN THE WESTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE E GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
OVER THE NE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE W GULF SUN AND MON BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS. DRIER AIR IS NOTED WEST OF THE FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE FRONT ENTERED
THE CARIBBEAN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS AND
4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED WEST OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E TRADE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF NICARAGUA FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MON. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 28N73W TO EASTERN CUBA. WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, 5 TO 7 FT SEAS AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
ANALYZED. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO N
WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FT N SWELL ARE NOTED NORTH OF DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG ROUGHLY 18N. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE
WINDS AND ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS, EXCEPT FOR 8 TO
9 FT SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 15N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW
WINDS NORTH OF 29N SAT INTO MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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