041
AXNT20 KNHC 111753
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI APR 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 09N13W TO 08N14W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 03N26W TO 00N37W TO
01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 08N BETWEEN
08W TO 20W, FROM 02S TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W, AND FROM 02S TO
01N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB LOCATED NEAR 23N92W AND ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE COVER MOST OF THE GULF AND PROVIDE LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
IN THE NE GULF AHEAD AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT THAT
ENTERED THE BASIN IN THE MORNING, EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF THE HOUSTON
AREA. SEAS ARE 3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND E BAY OF CAMPECHE,
AND 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE E GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT INTO SAT
BEFORE DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE W
GULF SUN AND MON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS PARTIALLY INTO
THE NE CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORES
BETWEEN PANAMA AND COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS
OF A STATIONARY FRONT, EXTENDS ALONG WESTERN HISPANIOLA WITH
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFFECTING HAITI ADJACENT
WATERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING INLAND HAITI AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE RIDGES TO THE EAST
AND WEST IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OFFSHORE NICARAGUA,
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESTERN
BASIN. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 1-2 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF NICARAGUA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MON. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST OF BERMUDA
NEAR 30N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS, AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 62W AND 74W. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S
WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO 55W WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. FARTHER
WEST, MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE OVER THE NE FLORIDA OFFSHORE
WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OVER THE FAR E SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
20N27W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS FOLLOW
THIS FRONT TO ABOUT 41W. DECAYING SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
STILL SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF 8 FT SEAS N OF 24N BETWEEN 20W AND
40W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA,
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE, SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT,
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS, FOLLOWED BY FRESH W TO NW WINDS NORTH OF 29N SAT
INTO MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAMOS
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