301
AXNT20 KNHC 112207
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT APR 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 09N13W TO 07N15W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 03N26W TO 00N40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 08N BETWEEN 08W TO
20W AND FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. BEHIND THE FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS PREVAIL
WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024
MB CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE DOMINATES,
LEADING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE E GULF
THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE W GULF SUN AND MON BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED N OF THE AREA EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS PARTIALLY INTO
THE NE CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 15N
BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT, EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NORTHWARD TO HAITI. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, INCLUDE OVER HISPANIOLA, WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS OCCURRING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE LOW AND TROUGH
IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OFFSHORE NICARAGUA, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE SE BASIN, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT,
WITH SOME LOCALLY 7 FT SEAS OFFSHORE NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF NICARAGUA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MON. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE
AREA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH, THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT, EXTEND NE
FROM HAITI THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. OTHERWISE, BROAD
RIDGING DOMINATES. E OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL. W
OF 55W, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE, BUT FRESH SW WINDS ARE
DEVELOPING N OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE FLORIDA, AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT E OF 55W,
AND 4 TO 6 FT TO THE W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS E OF THE FRONT AND
N OF 29N BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
KONARIK
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