437
AXNT20 KNHC 120435
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT APR 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0425 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N19W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO 03S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM SOUTH OF 04N AND BETWEEN 23W AND 40W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO SE
TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE NE
GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF, ESPECIALLY EAST OF 90W.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND
WEST OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE E
GULF THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE W GULF SUN AND MON BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO A 1008 MB LOW
PRES OFF NW COLOMBIA. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AFFECTING HISPANIOLA, EASTERN CUBA, JAMAICA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT,
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA ALLOWS FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY OFF NICARAGUA. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH BREEZES AND
SEAS OF 2-5 FT ARE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NW AND SE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF NICARAGUA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MON. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE
AREA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR 31N67W,
BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 29N69W THAT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD
TO A 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THEN TO
EASTERN HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 24N AND BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE WATERS OFF NE
FLORIDA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EVIDENT NORTH OF 29N AND WEST OF 79W. MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 75W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 36N42W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS E OF THE FRONT
AND N OF 29N BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
DELGADO
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