522
AXNT20 KNHC 121041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT APR 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N20W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM SOUTH OF 04N AND BETWEEN 25W AND 43W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N82W TO 25N91W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF, ESPECIALLY EAST OF 90W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND WEST OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE E GULF THROUGH TODAY. FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
MODERATE ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE W GULF
SUN AND MON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO A 1008 MB
LOW PRES OFF NW COLOMBIA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AFFECTING HISPANIOLA, EASTERN CUBA,
JAMAICA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF AMERICA ALLOWS FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY OFF NICARAGUA. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES AND SEAS OF
2-5 FT ARE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NW AND SE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT
IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF NICARAGUA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MON. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE
AREA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO
STRONG BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 31N76W TO 28N80W. TO THE SOUTHEAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 29N77W TO 24N81W. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FROM 31N67W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 22N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL THESE FEATURES, MAINLY
W OF 64W. MODERATE SEAS AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED IN
THIS AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 37N43W. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE IN THE MODERATE RANGE. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS E OF THE
FRONT AND N OF 29N BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW WATERS TUE
NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ERA
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